A Treatise on Probability John Maynard Keynes Classic Economics no edition stated A Treatise on Probability was published by John Maynard Keynes while at Cambridge University in 1921. The Treatise attacks classical theory of probability and proposes a "logical-relationist" theory instead. In a 1922 review, Bertrand Russell called it "undoubtedly the most important work on probability that has appeared for a very long time," and a "book as a whole is one which it is impossible to praise too highly. The Treatise is fundamentally philosophical in nature despite extensive mathematical formulations. The Treatise presents an approach to probability that is subject to variation with evidence. Keynes's conception of probability is that it is a strictly logical relation between evidence and hypothesis. Keynes uses the example of taking an umbrella in case of rain to express the idea of uncertainty that he dealt with by the use of interval estimates. Intervals that overlap are not greater than, less than or equal to each other. They can't be compared. Is our expectation of rain, when we start out for a walk, always more likely than not, or less likely than not, or as likely as not? I am prepared to argue that on some occasions none of these alternatives hold, and that it will be an arbitrary matter to decide for or against the umbrella. If the barometer is high, but the clouds are black, it is not always rational that one should prevail over the other in our minds, or even that we should balance them, though it will be rational to allow caprice to determine us and to waste no time on the debate.Domestic: Flat-rate of $12.00 to anywhere within the contiguous U.S.International: Foreign shipping rates are determined by destination.Location: This item ships from New York.
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